Altavox Excel Data (1)

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Average
Atlanta 33 45 37 38 55 30 18 58 47 37 23 55 40 40
Boston 26 35 41 40 46 48 55 18 62 44 30 45 50 42
Chicago 44 34 22 55 48 72 62 28 27 95 35 45 47 47
Dallas 27 42 35 40 51 64 70 65 55 43 38 47 42 48
Los Angles 32 43 54 40 46 74 40 35 45 38 48 56 50 46
Total 162 199 189 213 246 288 245 204 236 257 174 248 229 222

Altavox Data (2)

Week -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37
Boston 62 18 48 40 35
Chicago 62 22 72 44 48
Dallas 42 35 40 64 43
LA 43 40 54 46 35
Total 254 153 244 252 198

Question 1
Consider using a simple moving average model. Experiment with models using five week’s and three weeks’ past data. The past data in each region is given …show more content…

e Errors MAD 8.6 4.08 4.50 5.80 14.03 11.76 23.79 16.04 4.94 4.71 18.86 13.12 1.89 10.16 14.6 1.32 1.02 1.62 7.94 9.33 16.72 20.67 23.59 5.58 8.49 6.54 11.51 9.92 5.6 13.12 30.14 6.83 1.01 22.79 12.87 21.53 22.01 45.82 14.21 4.21 2.23 15.57 17.8 3.36 12.43 8.92 5.10 17.52 23.18 17.89 7.95 3.67 8.83 0.11 4.91 10.13 11.6 0.72 9.54 2.56 4.13 30.76 3.17 8.06 2.22 4.82 4.98 13.03 7.07 7.90

calculations for MAPE MAPE 0.26 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.26 0.39 1.32 0.28 0.11 0.13 0.82 0.24 0.05 32% 0.56 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.17 0.19 0.30 1.15 0.38 0.13 0.28 0.15 0.23 28% 0.13 0.39 1.37 0.12 0.02 0.32 0.21 0.77 0.82 0.48 0.41 0.09 0.05 40% 0.66 0.08 0.36 0.22 0.10 0.27 0.33 0.28 0.14 0.09 0.23 0.00 0.12 22% 0.36 0.02 0.18 0.06 0.09 0.42 0.08 0.23 0.05 0.13 0.10 0.23 0.14 16%

Three weeks smoothing

-3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Past three week's data Forcasted values for thirteen weeks
30 58 37 41.67 41.67 39.93 42.33 39.35 41.47 42.48 39.17 37.58 42.94 39.47 41.75 36.17
48 40 35 41.00 41.00 38.00 39.80 38.60 39.84 40.08 41.47 43.06 36.78 46.85 38.22 43.48
72 44 48 54.67 54.67 52.53 50.53 46.43 51.43 46.74 55.54 49.79 50.03 45.23 59.03 43.19
40 64 43 49.00 49.00 44.60 47.60 42.68 46.08 44.34 49.66 49.48 52.73 50.58 50.78 48.06
54 46 35 45.00