Housing Bubble
First, what happened is very straightforward: we had a huge run-up in house prices that had no basis in the fundamentals of the housing market. After 100 years in which nationwide house prices just kept even with the overall rate of inflation, house prices began to sharply outpace inflation, beginning in the late 1990s. By 2002, when some of us first noticed the bubble, house prices had already risen by more than 30 percent in excess of inflation. By the peak of the bubble in 2006, the increase in house prices was more than 70 percent above the rate of inflation. This was a huge problem because this bubble was driving the economy. It drove the economy directly by creating a boom in residential housing construction. We were building housing at near record pace in the years 2002-2006. This was in spite of the fact that we had an ageing population and record levels of vacancies at the start of that period. The other way in which the bubble was driving the economy was through its effect on consumption. The bubble created
more than eight trillion dollars in ephemeral wealth in housing. Homeowners thought this wealth was real and spent accordingly. The result was a massive consumption boom that sent the saving rate down to zero in the years from 2004-2006. My opinion and what I personally went through while