2013

PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5

PMGT5891 Project Risk Management

Assignment 2 – Group 5
Name: Felipe Arcila Eric Jonathan Ernst Bodamer Xintao Hou Minjie Shi Vagi William Student ID: 420160957 420177232 420149985 309108152 430154654

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PMGT589 – Project Risk Management 6/15/2013

PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5

Table of Contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Activity 1 – PERT Model ..................................................................................................... 2 Activity 2 – Monte Carlo Model ......................................................................................... 4 Activity 3 – Decision Tree Model …show more content…

100 Times Iteration
The Histogram output from Excel is showing below. Bin 38333 38667 39000 39333 39667 40000 40333 40667 41000 41333 41667 42000 42333 42667 More Frequency 0 0 0 1 3 17 17 13 14 14 11 4 5 1 0 Cumulative % 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 4.00% 21.00% 38.00% 51.00% 65.00% 79.00% 90.00% 94.00% 99.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Histogram
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%

Frequency

Bin

4

PMGT589 – Project Risk Management Assignment 2 – Group 5 1000 Times Iteration
The Histogram output from Excel is showing below. Bin 38333 38667 39000 39333 39667 40000 40333 40667 41000 41333 41667 42000 42333 42667 More Frequency 1 4 10 27 65 113 134 149 148 127 99 75 31 14 3 Cumulative % 0.10% 0.50% 1.50% 4.20% 10.70% 22.00% 35.40% 50.30% 65.10% 77.80% 87.70% 95.20% 98.30% 99.70% 100.00%

Histogram
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%

Frequency

Bin

5000 Times Iteration
The Histogram output from Excel is showing below. Bin 38333 38667 39000 39333 39667 40000 40333 40667 41000 41333 41667 42000 42333 42667 More Frequency 2 9 60 158 302 492 708 775 749 658 497 326 180 54 30 Cumulative % 0.04% 0.22% 1.42% 4.58% 10.62% 20.46% 34.62% 50.12% 65.10% 78.26% 88.20% 94.72% 98.32% 99.40% 100.00%

Histogram
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%

Frequency

Bin

5

PMGT589 – Project Risk Management